Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Dowd 49.1% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 86.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 82.6%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 50.2%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Pettersson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Pettersson
Dowd
Last 10: Pettersson 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
4
0
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
4
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pettersson
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (790)
51.7% (644)
-5.8%
Power Play
55.4% (242)
0.0% (2)
+55.4%
Penalty Kill
35.5% (107)
41.6% (221)
-6.1%
On power play, Pettersson has a +55.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pettersson is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (408).
Pettersson shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Dowd
Home
49.3% (584)
48.6% (451)
Away
44.5% (555)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Pettersson
Dowd
P1
45.8%
49.1%
P2
47.9%
47.3%
P3
47.1%
51.4%
OT
47.1%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▬
50.5%
47.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |