Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Haula on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Haula 50.1% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 70.0%
Defensive zone
Haula 65.0%
Neutral zone
Haula 50.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Haula
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Haula
MacKinnon
Last 9: Haula 4-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Haula
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Haula
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
3
2
Haula
MacKinnon
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Haula
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (704)
50.0% (992)
+0.0%
Power Play
55.4% (74)
64.9% (148)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (59)
34.4% (32)
+9.7%
On penalty kill, Haula has a +9.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Haula is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
Haula shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Haula
MacKinnon
Home
48.6% (426)
53.3% (591)
Away
51.6% (411)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Haula
MacKinnon
P1
52.2%
49.9%
P2
51.5%
53.2%
P3
46.7%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Haula
54.0%▲
48.5%
50.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Erik Haula |