Scouting Report
Erik Haula holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Haula on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 23 meetings). Haula wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Haula 52.3% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Haula leads 35-26 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Haula 60.5%
Defensive zone
Haula 85.5%
Neutral zone
Haula 82.4%
Result
Erik Haula favored at 76.7%
76.7%
23.3%
Haula
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
26
(61 meetings)
35
26
Haula
MacKinnon
Last 10: Haula 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Haula
10
9
Haula
MacKinnon
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Haula
14
9
Haula
MacKinnon
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Haula
11
8
Haula
MacKinnon
19 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Haula
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
52.9% (7,683)
46.1% (11,218)
+6.8%
Power Play
57.5% (603)
53.3% (1,412)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (791)
42.8% (502)
+0.7%
On even strength, Haula has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Haula is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,293).
Haula shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Haula
MacKinnon
Home
53.4% (4,478)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
51.3% (4,599)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Haula
MacKinnon
P1
53.2%
47.4%
P2
51.4%
46.6%
P3
52.7%
46.1%
OT
43.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Haula
54.0%▲
48.5%
52.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 18:28 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 11:16 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 08:04 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 12:34 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Neutral | Erik Haula |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:01 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 02:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:46 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:45 | Offensive | Erik Haula |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:47 | Defensive | Erik Haula |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |