Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Duchene 51.0% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.7%
Defensive zone
Duchene 57.7%
Neutral zone
Duchene 55.6%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (525)
51.4% (177)
-4.5%
Power Play
48.1% (54)
75.0% (8)
-26.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (57)
20.0% (5)
+13.3%
On power play, Duchene has a +26.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 47.8% vs right-shot opponents (69).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
46.3% (354)
48.8% (41)
Away
45.0% (282)
52.3% (149)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
47.7%
47.6%
P2
46.0%
62.3%
P3
43.2%
46.2%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.8%
Duchene
52.0%▲
49.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |