Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Duchene 51.6% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 74.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 50.9%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 50.0%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
51.2% (324)
-3.3%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
60.4% (53)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
16.7% (6)
+20.6%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
48.3% (429)
51.6% (182)
Away
45.4% (346)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
48.3%
49.6%
P2
46.9%
56.2%
P3
45.6%
48.6%
OT
44.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |