Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 49.6% vs Duchene 52.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 80.1%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 70.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.4%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Rodrigues
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Rodrigues
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (180)
53.9% (193)
+0.5%
Power Play
32.0% (25)
49.2% (65)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (36)
100.0% (1)
-63.9%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +63.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
47.9% (119)
54.9% (113)
Away
50.8% (122)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
53.8%
54.9%
P2
51.9%
52.7%
P3
43.2%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.7%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2022 | OT | 03:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |