Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Duchene 54.1% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 15-10 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 78.8%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 69.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 74.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 75.1%
75.1%
24.9%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
15
(25 meetings)
10
15
Rodrigues
Duchene
Last 10: Rodrigues 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
2
8
Rodrigues
Duchene
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
4
2
Rodrigues
Duchene
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
4
5
Rodrigues
Duchene
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
53.9% (10,396)
-7.7%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
56.9% (1,665)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
49.1% (468)
-6.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (4,494).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
47.1% (1,820)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
46.9%
54.5%
P2
46.1%
54.5%
P3
44.6%
53.4%
OT
48.5%
56.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 06:24 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 23, 2022 | OT | 03:52 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 05:40 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2019 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 15:17 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 11:51 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 3 | 01:10 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 31, 2019 | 1 | 17:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 3, 2018 | 1 | 15:09 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Apr 4, 2018 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 00:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |