Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 43.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 44.0% vs Duchene 52.8% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 73.4%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 70.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.8%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Rodrigues
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Rodrigues
Duchene
Last 6: Rodrigues 1-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Rodrigues
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Rodrigues
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (338)
52.6% (1,112)
-11.2%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
56.0% (193)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
49.0% (49)
+1.0%
On even strength, Duchene has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Rodrigues is 43.3% vs left-shot opponents (233).
Rodrigues shoots right. Duchene is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Duchene
Home
40.9% (159)
55.7% (652)
Away
43.5% (209)
50.4% (702)
By Period
Rodrigues
Duchene
P1
47.8%
51.4%
P2
37.6%
53.9%
P3
42.1%
53.3%
OT
0.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
44.8%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
42.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2018 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 3 | 05:10 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 15, 2018 | 2 | 04:55 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 3 | 00:35 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 12, 2017 | 1 | 10:13 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |