Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Aho 48.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 61.5%
Defensive zone
Malkin 57.7%
Neutral zone
Malkin 61.1%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 61.3%
61.3%
38.7%
Malkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Malkin
Aho
Last 5: Malkin 1-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
3
Malkin
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (807)
47.4% (953)
-1.2%
Power Play
30.4% (23)
58.0% (174)
-27.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
41.6% (77)
-8.3%
On power play, Aho has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Malkin is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (611).
Malkin shoots left. Aho is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (751).
Home / Away
Malkin
Aho
Home
45.1% (450)
50.2% (609)
Away
46.4% (384)
46.9% (595)
By Period
Malkin
Aho
P1
48.2%
48.7%
P2
43.5%
50.2%
P3
46.0%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
43.5%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |