Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Aho 51.2% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 55.8%
Defensive zone
Malkin 52.9%
Neutral zone
Malkin 54.4%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 54.2%
54.2%
45.8%
Malkin
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
9
(16 meetings)
7
9
Malkin
Aho
Last 10: Malkin 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Malkin
Aho
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
4
Malkin
Aho
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
1
Malkin
Aho
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
50.1% (6,619)
-4.5%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
58.9% (1,310)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
46.3% (464)
-14.1%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Malkin
Aho
Home
47.6% (5,395)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Malkin
Aho
P1
45.9%
51.1%
P2
46.2%
52.0%
P3
45.2%
50.7%
OT
49.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2024 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 1 | 12:45 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 04:34 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 4, 2022 | OT | 01:18 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 2 | 11:24 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 13:26 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 2 | 03:08 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 03:35 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 18:47 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 11:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 08:41 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 23, 2018 | 1 | 09:02 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |