Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 38.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.3% vs Sturm 52.5% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 56.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 79.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 56.5%
43.5%
56.5%
Barbashev
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barbashev
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (272)
54.0% (480)
-16.1%
Power Play
58.6% (29)
28.6% (7)
+30.0%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (27)
50.0% (102)
-9.3%
On power play, Barbashev has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 38.6% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
45.3% (137)
54.0% (287)
Away
36.1% (191)
52.0% (302)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
41.8%
53.5%
P2
43.1%
51.0%
P3
31.9%
55.1%
OT
75.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
37.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
39.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
53.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |