Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 46.5% vs Sturm 59.0% (-17.6%)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 76.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 55.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Barbashev
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
40.0% (75)
60.6% (708)
-20.6%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
61.1% (18)
-2.8%
On even strength, Sturm has a +20.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (60).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (563).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
45.8% (48)
61.6% (451)
Away
38.5% (39)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
43.3%
55.9%
P2
31.0%
58.9%
P3
53.6%
64.6%
Final 5 min
35.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
42.5%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%