Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Barbashev on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barbashev wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Sturm 56.1% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Barbashev 71.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Barbashev
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Barbashev
Sturm
Last 10: Barbashev 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
4
0
Barbashev
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Barbashev
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Barbashev
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
57.1% (2,719)
-15.1%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
61.3% (62)
-15.2%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
51.0% (498)
-14.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,173).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
42.4% (932)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
40.7%
56.5%
P2
42.3%
54.9%
P3
42.3%
57.4%
OT
60.0%
60.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Jan 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:00 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |