Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +32.6% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 22.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 40.7% vs Sturm 53.6% (-32.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 59.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 94.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 81.0%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Barbashev
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Barbashev
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
18.6% (43)
54.6% (271)
-36.0%
On even strength, Sturm has a +36.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 22.9% vs left-shot opponents (35).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
20.8% (24)
53.0% (168)
Away
23.1% (26)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
33.3%
58.2%
P2
6.7%
53.2%
P3
21.4%
52.3%
Final 5 min
0.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
22.0%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 08:57 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |