Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +17.6% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 36.0% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 43.0% vs Sturm 55.2% (-17.6%)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 73.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Barbashev
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
39.1% (128)
56.1% (716)
-17.0%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
67.7% (31)
-31.3%
Penalty Kill
20.0% (5)
51.1% (133)
-31.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +31.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 36.0% vs left-shot opponents (75).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
40.0% (85)
55.6% (412)
Away
35.6% (59)
56.0% (468)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
35.8%
59.6%
P2
29.5%
52.0%
P3
48.9%
55.5%
Final 5 min
31.3%
56.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
38.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%