Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Tavares 57.7% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 60.3%
Defensive zone
Miller 73.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 54.0%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Miller
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Miller
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Miller
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Miller
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
57.5% (914)
-1.8%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
60.5% (309)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
59.1% (22)
-11.9%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. Tavares is 61.6% vs left-shot opponents (774).
Home / Away
Miller
Tavares
Home
56.1% (440)
61.0% (661)
Away
53.8% (446)
55.3% (584)
By Period
Miller
Tavares
P1
52.3%
58.6%
P2
54.7%
57.8%
P3
57.2%
58.4%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.2%
63.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 07:17 | Defensive | John Tavares |