Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 53.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.9%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 56.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.7%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Miller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Miller
MacKinnon
Last 10: Miller 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Miller
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Miller
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (933)
45.8% (755)
+9.7%
Power Play
61.6% (73)
48.3% (60)
+13.3%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (227)
27.6% (29)
+18.2%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Miller is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (464).
Miller shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Miller
MacKinnon
Home
53.5% (578)
49.5% (396)
Away
54.7% (655)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Miller
MacKinnon
P1
58.3%
50.2%
P2
53.5%
43.8%
P3
50.1%
41.4%
OT
70.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.9%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:14 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 03:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 14:42 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |