Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 57.6% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 82.6%
Defensive zone
Miller 92.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 83.8%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Miller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Miller
MacKinnon
Last 8: Miller 7-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
4
0
Miller
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (823)
49.2% (1,266)
+9.0%
Power Play
58.2% (165)
54.9% (193)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
58.9% (90)
49.1% (55)
+9.8%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Miller is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Miller shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Miller
MacKinnon
Home
59.1% (558)
50.9% (740)
Away
57.3% (520)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Miller
MacKinnon
P1
60.7%
50.9%
P2
57.5%
51.8%
P3
56.1%
47.1%
OT
73.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
60.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 08:20 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 07:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 04:57 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:47 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |