Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Miller wins 61.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 55.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 92.3%
Defensive zone
Miller 92.4%
Neutral zone
Miller 92.5%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 92.4%
92.4%
7.6%
Miller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
7
(21 meetings)
14
7
Miller
MacKinnon
Last 10: Miller 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
0
Miller
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Miller
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
7
3
Miller
MacKinnon
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,033)
45.5% (1,190)
+10.8%
Power Play
62.5% (253)
56.4% (94)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (175)
40.0% (30)
+7.4%
On even strength, Miller has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Miller is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Miller shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Miller
MacKinnon
Home
58.6% (734)
47.8% (670)
Away
54.1% (727)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Miller
MacKinnon
P1
57.1%
45.3%
P2
57.0%
48.5%
P3
54.7%
45.0%
OT
62.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 19:57 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 14:07 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 05:32 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 13, 2024 | 1 | 02:44 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 09:44 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 02:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 1 | 10:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 16:03 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 00:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:09 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |