Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Miller wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.6% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 65.0%
Defensive zone
Miller 53.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 58.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Miller
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Miller
MacKinnon
Last 10: Miller 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Miller
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
1
Miller
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Miller
MacKinnon
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (540)
50.0% (992)
+11.5%
Power Play
65.6% (122)
64.9% (148)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
34.4% (32)
+13.3%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Miller is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Miller shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Miller
MacKinnon
Home
62.1% (372)
53.3% (591)
Away
59.7% (355)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Miller
MacKinnon
P1
58.9%
49.9%
P2
63.9%
53.2%
P3
59.8%
50.8%
OT
60.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
63.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 16:55 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:07 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:24 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:06 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 02:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:09 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 09:20 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 14:55 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 17:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 08:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |