Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Miller wins 60.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 57.6% vs Dowd 49.9% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 97.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 68.6%
Neutral zone
Miller 72.4%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Miller
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Miller
Dowd
Last 10: Miller 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
5
0
Miller
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Miller
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (823)
52.2% (835)
+6.0%
Power Play
58.2% (165)
60.0% (10)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
58.9% (90)
44.0% (350)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Miller is 60.2% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Miller shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Miller
Dowd
Home
59.1% (558)
51.5% (619)
Away
57.3% (520)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Miller
Dowd
P1
60.7%
51.7%
P2
57.5%
51.6%
P3
56.1%
47.0%
OT
73.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
60.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | OT | 03:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |