Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 17 meetings). Miller wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs Dowd 50.7% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 19-12 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 93.1%
Defensive zone
Miller 68.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 61.7%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 81.2%
81.2%
18.8%
Miller
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
12
(31 meetings)
19
12
Miller
Dowd
Last 10: Miller 8-2 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
15
2
Miller
Dowd
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
9
Miller
Dowd
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,648)
52.4% (6,009)
+2.8%
Power Play
57.9% (1,285)
56.1% (164)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (913)
44.1% (1,635)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Miller is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,937).
Miller shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Miller
Dowd
Home
55.9% (4,578)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
53.8% (4,268)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Miller
Dowd
P1
54.7%
51.7%
P2
55.6%
50.4%
P3
54.0%
50.3%
OT
62.3%
45.9%
Final 5 min
55.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2025 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2025 | 1 | 04:10 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 5, 2025 | OT | 03:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:57 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 04:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 3 | 00:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 8, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 06:01 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 18:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 06:08 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:11 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 11, 2024 | 3 | 16:16 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 09:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |