Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 45.3% vs O'Reilly 57.6% (-14.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 67.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.0%
Neutral zone
Miller 50.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 9: Miller 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Miller
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
2
Miller
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Miller
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (284)
57.9% (1,179)
-13.2%
Power Play
46.0% (50)
63.0% (292)
-17.0%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
53.8% (320)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (257).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
44.2% (206)
61.3% (884)
Away
43.7% (151)
54.8% (907)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
44.1%
55.5%
P2
40.2%
61.0%
P3
46.2%
56.8%
OT
100.0%
67.7%
Final 5 min
46.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
44.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2017 | 3 | 01:37 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 03:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 2 | 00:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 1 | 19:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 2, 2017 | 1 | 12:22 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 3 | 06:45 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 1, 2016 | 2 | 02:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |