Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Miller wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 57.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 58.1%
Defensive zone
Miller 78.2%
Neutral zone
Miller 62.2%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 67.1%
67.1%
32.9%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
6
(17 meetings)
11
6
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Miller 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
4
3
Miller
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
5
2
Miller
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (823)
56.2% (983)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.2% (165)
55.5% (254)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
58.9% (90)
52.0% (102)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (754).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
59.1% (558)
56.2% (697)
Away
57.3% (520)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
60.7%
54.5%
P2
57.5%
55.5%
P3
56.1%
57.1%
OT
73.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |