Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 44 meetings). Miller wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 66-63 in 129 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 56.9%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
63
-
66
(129 meetings)
63
66
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Miller 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
26
18
Miller
O'Reilly
44 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
22
30
Miller
O'Reilly
52 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
18
Miller
O'Reilly
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,648)
56.2% (15,260)
-1.0%
Power Play
57.9% (1,285)
58.8% (3,445)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (913)
51.4% (2,811)
-3.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,907).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
55.9% (4,578)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
53.8% (4,268)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
54.7%
55.6%
P2
55.6%
57.0%
P3
54.0%
55.1%
OT
62.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
55.2%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:51 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 19:33 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 11:28 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 00:39 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 1 | 02:36 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:58 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:36 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:28 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 17:10 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 2 | 16:53 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |