Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 55.8%). Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 52.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 57.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 8: Miller 5-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
1
Miller
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Miller
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
56.1% (690)
-0.4%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
64.6% (96)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
45.9% (109)
+1.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
56.1% (440)
58.3% (408)
Away
53.8% (446)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
52.3%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
54.8%
P3
57.2%
55.2%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:27 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:32 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 16:15 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 01:07 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 13:02 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |