Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 53.8% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 63.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 63.3%
Neutral zone
Miller 63.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 63.3%
63.3%
36.7%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Miller 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
3
Miller
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Miller
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Miller
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (933)
56.6% (1,064)
-1.1%
Power Play
61.6% (73)
60.4% (260)
+1.2%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (227)
54.0% (261)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (769).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
53.5% (578)
54.9% (801)
Away
54.7% (655)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
58.3%
58.0%
P2
53.5%
56.7%
P3
50.1%
55.4%
OT
70.6%
64.7%
Final 5 min
54.9%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 14:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 13:14 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 11:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 06:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |