Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Miller wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 55.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.5%
Defensive zone
Miller 60.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Miller
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Miller
O'Reilly
Last 10: Miller 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Miller
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
4
2
Miller
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
7
Miller
O'Reilly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,033)
55.0% (1,084)
+1.3%
Power Play
62.5% (253)
56.8% (303)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (175)
40.3% (149)
+7.1%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Miller shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Miller
O'Reilly
Home
58.6% (734)
54.8% (759)
Away
54.1% (727)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Miller
O'Reilly
P1
57.1%
55.3%
P2
57.0%
51.9%
P3
54.7%
54.2%
OT
62.5%
64.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 05:05 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 17:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 14:31 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:08 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 17:09 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 16:10 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 00:11 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 18:53 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 13:00 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 10:28 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |