Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McBain wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 44.7% vs Carrick 49.5% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 72.0%
Defensive zone
Carrick 82.4%
Neutral zone
Carrick 74.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 80.3%
19.7%
80.3%
McBain
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
McBain
Carrick
Last 5: McBain 4-1 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
1
0
McBain
Carrick
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (675)
49.2% (307)
-3.9%
Power Play
50.0% (16)
66.7% (6)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (149)
48.2% (56)
-10.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McBain is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (338).
McBain shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
McBain
Carrick
Home
45.5% (437)
50.3% (175)
Away
42.4% (403)
48.5% (194)
By Period
McBain
Carrick
P1
43.5%
41.0%
P2
44.0%
51.2%
P3
45.0%
55.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
44.0%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Jack McBain |