Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. McBain wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 50.9% vs Carrick 53.8% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 50.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 78.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 65.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 71.7%
28.3%
71.7%
McBain
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
McBain
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
McBain
Carrick
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
0
McBain
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (545)
55.1% (439)
-3.0%
Power Play
57.1% (14)
66.7% (3)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
37.0% (46)
49.1% (53)
-12.1%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McBain is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (256).
McBain shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
McBain
Carrick
Home
52.2% (289)
58.2% (225)
Away
50.0% (316)
51.5% (270)
By Period
McBain
Carrick
P1
52.6%
56.7%
P2
53.6%
52.8%
P3
47.1%
54.4%
Final 5 min
54.1%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
51.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |