Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McBain on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). McBain wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McBain 46.7% vs Carrick 52.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
McBain leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 71.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 92.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 83.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 84.5%
15.5%
84.5%
McBain
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
McBain
Carrick
Last 10: McBain 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McBain
3
1
McBain
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McBain
5
2
McBain
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McBain
2
1
McBain
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McBain
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (2,298)
52.1% (2,513)
-4.1%
Power Play
49.0% (51)
61.3% (75)
-12.3%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (308)
50.7% (430)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. McBain is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (990).
McBain shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
McBain
Carrick
Home
49.0% (1,359)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
44.0% (1,298)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
McBain
Carrick
P1
46.7%
51.8%
P2
47.5%
52.2%
P3
45.6%
52.4%
Final 5 min
48.8%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McBain
50.0%▼
52.0%
46.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:48 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Jack McBain |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:12 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:58 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 11:50 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 10:56 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 17:12 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 2 | 09:46 | Defensive | Jack McBain |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 11:26 | Defensive | Jack McBain |