Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 56.8% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 51.7% vs Bjugstad 48.0% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 54.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 55.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.9%
46.1%
53.9%
Evans
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
1
Evans
Bjugstad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Evans
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (483)
49.4% (867)
+5.1%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
56.0% (25)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (155)
40.7% (216)
+3.2%
On even strength, Evans has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Evans is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Evans shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Home / Away
Evans
Bjugstad
Home
49.4% (336)
46.5% (480)
Away
54.8% (314)
48.9% (628)
By Period
Evans
Bjugstad
P1
55.8%
48.7%
P2
51.7%
45.6%
P3
48.2%
49.1%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 19, 2022 | 3 | 11:30 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 19, 2022 | 2 | 09:23 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |