Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Bjugstad 47.9% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 86.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 67.7%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 59.8%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Evans
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Evans
Bjugstad
Last 5: Evans 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Bjugstad
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Evans
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Evans
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
46.7% (398)
+7.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
51.6% (31)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
62.5% (8)
-14.4%
On power play, Evans has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Evans is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Evans shoots right. Bjugstad is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (114).
Home / Away
Evans
Bjugstad
Home
55.1% (541)
47.3% (220)
Away
50.8% (581)
47.5% (217)
By Period
Evans
Bjugstad
P1
51.8%
46.1%
P2
53.3%
46.3%
P3
53.8%
50.4%
Final 5 min
51.1%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 3 | 04:57 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:56 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |