Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Sturm 59.0% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 70.4%
Defensive zone
Evans 50.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 57.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 58.7%
41.3%
58.7%
Evans
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
60.6% (708)
-6.2%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
61.1% (18)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
56.4% (101)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
Evans
Sturm
Home
53.7% (581)
61.6% (451)
Away
50.5% (556)
58.2% (376)
By Period
Evans
Sturm
P1
54.6%
55.9%
P2
50.0%
58.9%
P3
52.3%
64.6%
OT
46.7%
70.6%
Final 5 min
49.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |