Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Sturm 56.1% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 58.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 59.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Evans
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
Evans
Sturm
Last 10: Evans 5-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Evans
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Evans
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
2
Evans
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.3%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
61.3% (62)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
51.0% (498)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Evans
Sturm
Home
53.4% (2,593)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Evans
Sturm
P1
54.0%
56.5%
P2
50.9%
54.9%
P3
52.0%
57.4%
OT
46.5%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:34 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 05:38 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 01:22 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 13:56 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 05:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |