Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 55.4% vs Sturm 53.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 54.7%
Defensive zone
Evans 65.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 65.5%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Evans
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Evans
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
0
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (477)
54.6% (271)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
55.4% (204)
54.4% (90)
+1.0%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Evans is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (516).
Evans shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Evans
Sturm
Home
55.3% (374)
53.0% (168)
Away
57.1% (317)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Evans
Sturm
P1
58.5%
58.2%
P2
55.7%
53.2%
P3
53.9%
52.3%
OT
66.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
56.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 03:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:09 | Offensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Jake Evans |