Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Sturm 57.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 59.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 72.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 56.6%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Evans
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Evans
Sturm
Last 6: Evans 1-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
1
Evans
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
Evans
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Evans
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
62.1% (356)
-7.7%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
75.0% (4)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
38.7% (62)
+9.4%
On penalty kill, Evans has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Evans
Sturm
Home
55.1% (541)
61.8% (191)
Away
50.8% (581)
56.3% (231)
By Period
Evans
Sturm
P1
51.8%
58.0%
P2
53.3%
57.9%
P3
53.8%
60.6%
Final 5 min
51.1%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:46 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 02:34 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:46 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:48 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:20 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |