Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.0% vs Donato 46.0% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Evans 56.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 95.2%
Neutral zone
Evans 82.9%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 88.9%
88.9%
11.1%
Evans
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Evans
Donato
Last 6: Evans 5-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Evans
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
5
0
Evans
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (807)
44.4% (180)
+10.0%
Power Play
55.0% (20)
43.2% (37)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.1% (310)
40.0% (5)
+6.1%
On power play, Evans has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Evans is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Evans shoots right. Donato is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Evans
Donato
Home
53.7% (581)
45.4% (97)
Away
50.5% (556)
43.2% (125)
By Period
Evans
Donato
P1
54.6%
36.2%
P2
50.0%
48.6%
P3
52.3%
46.9%
Final 5 min
49.6%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Jake Evans |