Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.2% vs Donato 44.9% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Evans 57.0%
Defensive zone
Evans 98.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 94.4%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 89.9%
89.9%
10.1%
Evans
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Evans
Donato
Last 10: Evans 8-2 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
3
Evans
Donato
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
9
1
Evans
Donato
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
3
0
Evans
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (3,695)
44.2% (1,179)
+9.6%
Power Play
60.0% (70)
46.3% (246)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (1,222)
36.4% (11)
+10.7%
On power play, Evans has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Evans is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (3,695).
Evans shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Evans
Donato
Home
53.4% (2,593)
47.2% (743)
Away
51.0% (2,394)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Evans
Donato
P1
54.0%
43.4%
P2
50.9%
45.1%
P3
52.0%
44.4%
OT
46.5%
70.0%
Final 5 min
50.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Dec 18, 2025 | 2 | 04:49 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:07 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 18:02 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:03 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:59 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:09 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 3 | 11:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Jan 9, 2023 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Jake Evans |