Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Evans wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Evans 52.6% vs Donato 45.4% (+8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 83.6%
Defensive zone
Evans 85.0%
Neutral zone
Donato 53.3%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 68.4%
31.6%
68.4%
Evans
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Evans
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
2
Evans
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
0
Evans
Donato
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Evans
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (824)
43.5% (400)
+10.9%
Power Play
66.7% (9)
48.7% (119)
+18.0%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (289)
33.3% (6)
+14.8%
On power play, Evans has a +18.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Evans shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Evans
Donato
Home
55.1% (541)
50.2% (279)
Away
50.8% (581)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Evans
Donato
P1
51.8%
44.6%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
53.8%
42.0%
OT
38.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:17 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 3 | 10:33 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 3, 2025 | 1 | 03:21 | Neutral | Jake Evans |