Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Morgan Frost
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.5% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.8% vs Frost 55.7% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 82.4%
Defensive zone
Pageau 79.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 52.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Pageau
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Pageau
Frost
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
Pageau
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
1
Pageau
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (687)
54.9% (701)
+4.2%
Power Play
69.4% (36)
60.8% (166)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
100.0% (5)
-39.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +39.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Pageau is 60.5% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Pageau shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Pageau
Frost
Home
57.8% (377)
56.0% (443)
Away
61.0% (559)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Pageau
Frost
P1
54.1%
58.9%
P2
62.1%
55.3%
P3
61.8%
54.0%
OT
75.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
63.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.7%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 09:24 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 15:13 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 18:04 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 14:07 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 09:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 03:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |