Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pageau wins 60.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.9% vs O'Reilly 54.8% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 51.3%
Defensive zone
Pageau 84.6%
Neutral zone
Pageau 71.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 9: Pageau 6-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Pageau
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
0
Pageau
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pageau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.5% (676)
55.3% (815)
+4.2%
Power Play
67.6% (34)
58.0% (219)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
60.1% (213)
49.2% (124)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
58.2% (364)
55.8% (579)
Away
61.0% (559)
54.6% (579)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
54.4%
57.5%
P2
62.3%
54.7%
P3
62.0%
54.1%
OT
75.0%
48.0%
Final 5 min
63.2%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▼
59.5%
59.9%
O'Reilly
48.0%▼
54.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |