Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 77.9%
Defensive zone
Pageau 83.1%
Neutral zone
Pageau 53.1%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pageau 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Pageau
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
1
Pageau
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Pageau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
55.0% (1,084)
+2.1%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
56.8% (303)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
40.3% (149)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
57.0% (618)
54.8% (759)
Away
53.9% (607)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
54.4%
55.3%
P2
61.0%
51.9%
P3
51.0%
54.2%
OT
50.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 04:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 00:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |