Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 64 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 79-74 in 153 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.4%
Defensive zone
Pageau 73.5%
Neutral zone
Pageau 59.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
74
-
79
(153 meetings)
74
79
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pageau 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
22
42
Pageau
O'Reilly
64 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
28
16
Pageau
O'Reilly
44 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
24
21
Pageau
O'Reilly
45 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
56.2% (15,260)
-0.5%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
58.8% (3,445)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
51.4% (2,811)
-1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
56.3% (6,214)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
54.6%
55.6%
P2
56.3%
57.0%
P3
53.5%
55.1%
OT
54.4%
62.2%
Final 5 min
53.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:10 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:56 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:53 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:40 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 2 | 04:03 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:24 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 11:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |