Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2021-22 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Pageau wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 56.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 56.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
6
(16 meetings)
10
6
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pageau 7-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Pageau
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Pageau
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
6
1
Pageau
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (1,000)
56.6% (1,064)
-0.8%
Power Play
56.6% (182)
60.4% (260)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.2% (170)
54.0% (261)
-2.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (983).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
57.1% (674)
54.9% (801)
Away
53.5% (678)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
56.9%
58.0%
P2
54.5%
56.7%
P3
54.7%
55.4%
OT
52.9%
64.7%
Final 5 min
55.3%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 16:04 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 05:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 09:41 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 16:16 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 13:46 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 11:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 10:18 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 18:13 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 04:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 04:17 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 06:36 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 1 | 04:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |