Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan O'Reilly
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Pageau wins 61.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 58.7% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.2%
Defensive zone
Pageau 77.9%
Neutral zone
Pageau 60.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Pageau
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Pageau
O'Reilly
Last 5: Pageau 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
6
Pageau
O'Reilly
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
59.6% (711)
56.2% (983)
+3.4%
Power Play
64.0% (114)
55.5% (254)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (163)
52.0% (102)
+4.4%
On power play, Pageau has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pageau is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (763).
Pageau shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Pageau
O'Reilly
Home
59.3% (506)
56.2% (697)
Away
60.0% (482)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Pageau
O'Reilly
P1
56.8%
54.5%
P2
64.4%
55.5%
P3
56.9%
57.1%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
61.1%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
59.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 15:17 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 17:37 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 2 | 07:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2025 | 1 | 13:51 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |