Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tommy Novak
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 55.0% vs Novak 43.5% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 64.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 96.2%
Neutral zone
Pageau 91.6%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Pageau
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pageau
Novak
Last 5: Pageau 4-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
1
Pageau
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
2
0
Pageau
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (905)
40.7% (460)
+16.4%
Power Play
55.2% (116)
61.5% (39)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
48.0% (204)
0.0% (1)
+48.0%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +48.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Pageau shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Pageau
Novak
Home
57.0% (618)
47.0% (236)
Away
53.9% (607)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Pageau
Novak
P1
54.4%
43.1%
P2
61.0%
43.1%
P3
51.0%
40.1%
Final 5 min
53.8%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |