Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Tommy Novak
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Novak 43.3% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Pageau leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Pageau 71.0%
Defensive zone
Pageau 97.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 93.3%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
Pageau
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Pageau
Novak
Last 10: Pageau 8-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
3
1
Pageau
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Pageau
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
0
Pageau
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (9,486)
42.1% (1,539)
+13.6%
Power Play
57.0% (1,002)
51.9% (133)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,069)
50.0% (2)
-0.4%
On even strength, Pageau has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,837).
Pageau shoots right. Novak is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Pageau
Novak
Home
56.3% (6,214)
45.3% (814)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Pageau
Novak
P1
54.6%
43.9%
P2
56.3%
42.8%
P3
53.5%
41.7%
OT
54.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.9%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:41 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:07 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:28 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 05:24 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 05:18 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 3 | 02:34 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 05:56 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 2 | 04:13 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |