Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 72.5%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 83.9%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 62.5%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 61.3%
38.7%
61.3%
Tavares
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Tavares
Bjugstad
Last 5: Tavares 2-3 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Bjugstad
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
2
Tavares
Bjugstad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
50.7% (906)
+8.5%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
48.1% (108)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.4% (239)
-1.5%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bjugstad
Home
57.5% (668)
49.8% (643)
Away
61.1% (684)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Tavares
Bjugstad
P1
58.0%
49.4%
P2
60.1%
50.5%
P3
61.0%
47.9%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |