Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bjugstad on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Bjugstad 48.9% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Bjugstad leads 25-24 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 61.8%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 75.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 58.9%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Tavares
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
25
(49 meetings)
24
25
Tavares
Bjugstad
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
13
9
Tavares
Bjugstad
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
15
Tavares
Bjugstad
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
9
1
Tavares
Bjugstad
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
48.6% (6,634)
+5.4%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
55.2% (829)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
44.3% (614)
+6.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Home / Away
Tavares
Bjugstad
Home
56.1% (10,503)
49.8% (4,020)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
48.1% (4,057)
By Period
Tavares
Bjugstad
P1
55.0%
49.0%
P2
54.1%
49.1%
P3
54.1%
48.4%
OT
55.9%
61.3%
Final 5 min
54.8%
47.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 18:10 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:37 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 19:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 05:27 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 17:42 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 18:28 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:34 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 19:15 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 11:19 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 17, 2022 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |